How many customers are you targeting? Start by confirming that the market exists before you invest in calculating its size. You can do this in a couple of ways:

1. 1. Run experiments to test the market hypothesis.
   2. Look for similar business models.
   3. Show the volume of users that you will reach or solutions that you seek to replace.

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1. 1. Who fits your ideal customer profile?
   2. What percentage is likely to buy your solution?
   3. Which ones are you targeting first?
   4. How many are currently paying?
   5. You have performed market validation with proof of growth.

Tips

1. 1. You can use top-down, bottom-up, and value-based theories to estimate market size using.
   2. Understand segments and geographic distribution market structure.
   3. Understand the growth patterns, existing legislation, and social technology trends in the market.

Common Mistakes

• • Poorly researched market size.
  • You are only using one approach (e.g., top-down approach) with some data that you find in a basic Google search.
  • Markets are complex. Understand their inner mechanisms and trends.
  • Assuming a 100% market share for your niche.
  • Obsessing on coming up with the right number.
  • No market validation.

Examples: